According to the International Monetary Fund, Nigeria’s GDP would increase from 3.0 percent in 2022 to 3.2 percent in 2023 as a result of actions taken to alleviate insecurity in the oil industry.
This was revealed by the IMF in its World Economic Outlook Update (January 2023) report. It predicted that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will slow to 3.8% in 2023 because to the long-term effects of the COVID-19 epidemic.
South Africa’s economy will contract from 2.6% in 2022 to 1.2% in 2023.
It said, “In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to remain moderate at 3.8 per cent in 2023 amid prolonged fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, although with a modest upward revision since October, before picking up to 4.1 percent in 2024.
“The small upward revision for 2023 (0.1 percentage point) reflects Nigeria’s rising growth in 2023 due to measures to address insecurity issues in the oil sector. In South Africa, by contrast, after a COVID-19 reopening rebound in 2022, projected growth more than halves in 2023, to 1.2 percent, reflecting weaker external demand, power shortages, and structural constraints.”
According to the Washington-based lender, global economic growth will decrease in 2023 before resuming in 2024. This is because the worldwide struggle against inflation, as well as Russia’s war in Ukraine, are weighing on activity.
Growth is expected to decrease from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023 before rebounding to 3.1% in 2024. According to the money lender, its January projection is far less pessimistic than its October forecast and may indicate a turning point, with growth bottoming out and inflation falling.
It said, “Economic growth proved surprisingly resilient in the third quarter of last year, with strong labour markets, robust household consumption and business investment, and better-than-expected adaptation to the energy crisis in Europe.
“Inflation, too, showed improvement, with overall measures now decreasing in most countries—even if core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, has yet to peak in many countries.
“Elsewhere, China’s sudden re-opening paves the way for a rapid rebound in activity. And global financial conditions have improved as inflation pressures started to abate. This, and a weakening of the US dollar from its November high, provided some modest relief to emerging and developing countries.”
Recently, the United Nations projected that a robust commodities trade and dynamic consumer goods and services markets would push Nigeria’s economic growth to three percent in 2023.
In its own prediction for 2023, the World Bank stated that the Nigerian economy would grow at 2.9 per cent in 2023.
In 2022, crude oil production in Nigeria nosedived because of the activities of pipeline vandals and oil thieves. Production crashed to a low of 0.937mbpd in September 2022 but rebounded to 1.235 million barrels per day in December 2022.
